Solar Builder

SEP-OCT 2018

Solar Builder focuses on the installation/construction of solar PV systems. We cover the latest PV technology (modules, mounting, inverters, storage, BOS) and equip installers/contractors with tips and tools to make informed purchasing decisions.

Issue link: http://digital.solarbuildermag.com/i/1019375

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8 S E P T E M B E R / O C TO B E R 2 0 1 8 I ntersolar keynote speaker Tony Seba put the solar industry on notice: The clean energy disruption is coming. This is no doubt what a crowd of solar professionals wants to hear, but the prediction was backed by a depth of com- pelling research. For those unfamiliar, Seba is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford's Continuing Studies Program and author of Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation. His work focuses on clean energy, entrepreneurship and market disruption of the world's major industries, such as energy, transportation, infrastructure, finance and manufacturing. Yea, it's a lot, but luckily he summarized it all in his presentation. His research shows how the tipping point for disruption has always led to a sharp S-curve trajectory. Consider the fact that cars replaced the horse and buggy in a mere 10-year span — and that's in the days of, well, horse and buggy. Stands to reason this is only get- ting sharper in our current time. "S curves are accelerating," Seba said. "It takes months or a year or two. They are more like J curves now, yet there are still just straight lines in projections." His research studying disruption over the years reveals that technology plays a big part, but technology alone doesn't cause disruption on the level of the smart- phone or automobile. New, adjacent tech- nologies need to converge with each other as well as new business models. "Disruptions happen from the outside, incumbents are not the ones traditionally who enable disruptions because they are addicted to the cash flow," Seba says. "There's a reason they are incumbents. They either don't see it or dismiss it because mainstream analysts tell them not to worry about it." He makes the case that batteries, EVs, ride-sharing, autonomous vehicles and solar are on a path to converge in the 2020s — making it the most disruptive decade in history — and totally remake energy and transportation infrastructure. By 2030, it will be done. The end scenario in 2030 is a world with little to no car ownership because the economic argument for ride- sharing everywhere via fleets of automated EV ride services will make too much eco- nomic sense. That reality upends much of our modern infrastructure by adding an abundance of storage on the grid, making parking lots obsolete, putting an extra $6,000 in a family's pocket per year and providing more people with cheaper access to more places. Oh, and this is a world where solar + storage can account for 100 percent of electricity generation. Reading it all quickly makes my head explode, but know what's wilder? It's all completely rea- sonable based on the data. ON THE SCENE Intersolar keynote explains how solar + storage gets to 100 percent of generation by 2030 By Chris Crowell Repent: GOD parity is coming RIGHT: Tony Seba gets animated explaining the clean energy disruption.

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